Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
分类：长周期
截止：2026-12-31（133 天）
成交 $59.1M · 持仓 $1.1M
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场共识概率
17%
Yes / No
AI 判断
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本地模型未接入
Edge
—
待 AI 层接入后计算
七模型分解
| 模型 | 说明 | 概率 | 权重 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 经济模型 | 待接入 | — |
| Math | 数学模型 | 待接入 | — |
| Physics / Statistics | 物理与统计模型 | 待接入 | — |
| News | 新闻模型 | 待接入 | — |
| KOL | KOL 模型 | 待接入 | — |
| LLM Debate | 多模型辩论 | 待接入 | — |
| JKJ | 非传统实验信号 | 待接入 | — |
本地小模型尚未搭建完成，各模型概率与权重为预留位。
结算规则（来源网站原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.